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MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Economic Health Index

National conditions that shape Erie and Pennsylvania business decisions.

Jump to the Erie & Pennsylvania report ↓
64/ 100
Expanding, with pressure

A calculated U.S. economic index using seven components. Partial index: 95% of component weights available. This is national context; Erie and Pennsylvania figures appear in the regional report.

Reviewed October 7, 2026. Verified readings shown below.
BEA

Real GDP

2.2% annualized quarterly growth
Reporting period
Q2 2026
Released
Sep 30, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 29, 2026

Inflation-adjusted U.S. output; third estimate, subject to revision.

Official source ↗
BEA

Real gross domestic income

2.6% annualized quarterly growth
Reporting period
Q2 2026
Released
Sep 30, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
See publisher calendar

Income-side measure of U.S. output.

Official source ↗
BLS

U.S. unemployment

4.2% of labor force
Reporting period
September 2026
Released
Oct 2, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Nov 6, 2026

Seasonally adjusted national rate; not the Erie rate.

Official source ↗
BLS

U.S. payroll change

+29,000jobs added in month
Reporting period
September 2026
Released
Oct 2, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Nov 6, 2026

Seasonally adjusted change; September is preliminary.

Official source ↗
BEA

Real consumer spending

0.6% month over month
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 30, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 29, 2026

Inflation-adjusted spending; calculated from FRED levels and rounded to one decimal.

Official source ↗
BEA

Core PCE inflation

3% year over year
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 30, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 29, 2026

Excludes food and energy; calculated from matching months one year apart.

Official source ↗
BLS

Consumer price inflation

3.4% year over year
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 11, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 14, 2026

CPI-U seasonally adjusted index via FRED; individual business costs vary.

Official source ↗
Federal Reserve

Manufacturing output

-0.3% month over month
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 18, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 16, 2026

National manufacturing production, NAICS basis, seasonally adjusted.

Official source ↗
Federal Reserve

Fed target range · lower

3.75% policy rate
Reporting period
2026-10-07
Released
Sep 16, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
See publisher calendar

Policy target benchmark; not a business loan quote.

Official source ↗
Federal Reserve

Fed target range · upper

4% policy rate
Reporting period
2026-10-07
Released
Sep 16, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
See publisher calendar

Upper bound of the federal funds target range.

Official source ↗
The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence Index · CCI

81.9index points · 1985 = 100
Reporting period
September 2026
Released
Sep 29, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 27, 2026

Down 6.7 index points from August. A supplementary survey signal; excluded from the score.

Official source ↗
The Conference Board

Current business activity · CEI

0.1% month over month
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 18, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 22, 2026

Coincident Economic Index level 114.9 (2016 = 100).

Official source ↗
The Conference Board

Leading indicators · LEI

-0.1% month over month
Reporting period
August 2026
Released
Sep 18, 2026
Verified
Oct 7, 2026
Next release
Oct 22, 2026

Leading Economic Index level 99.5 (2016 = 100).

Official source ↗
MARKET QUOTES

Financial conditions

Awaiting verified Treasury and S&P quotes. The score uses the available economic components.

Higher yields can raise borrowing pressure; daily stock moves are a short-term signal.

See market quotes ↓
Sources, exact scoring formula and update dates

This editorial index is calculated by ErieBizToday; it is not a government statistic or recession probability. Official BEA, BLS and Federal Reserve data are read through FRED. The Conference Board readings are a reviewed release snapshot and expire at the next scheduled release. Confidence, CPI, factory output and Fed rates provide context and do not add score components.

Index components and calculation anchors
ComponentWeightInput → scoreCurrent score
Growth20%Average GDP and GDI: −2% → 0; +4% → 10073.3
Employment20%Average unemployment: 3% → 100; 8% → 0. Payroll: 0 → 40; 300,000 → 9060.4
Real spending15%−0.5% → 20; +0.5% → 8086.0
Core inflation10%2% → 90; 5% → 060.0
Current activity · CEI15%−0.5% → 15; +0.5% → 8557.0
Leading indicators · LEI15%−0.5% → 15; +0.5% → 8543.0
Financial conditions5%Treasury (70%): 3% → 80; 6% → 20. S&P (30%): −2% → 25; +2% → 75Excluded

Each input score = max(0, min(100, low score + (input − low input) ÷ (high input − low input) × (high score − low score))). Available inputs within growth and employment are averaged; financial inputs are weighted 70/30 and renormalized when one is missing. Total = sum(score × weight) ÷ available weights, rounded to an integer. The score is withheld below 45% available weight.

Bands: 80–100 strong expansion; 70–79 healthy expansion; 60–69 expanding with pressure; 45–59 mixed; 30–44 under pressure; below 30 severe pressure. Future observations are rejected. Readings past their stated next release or age limit are excluded; retained values remain visible with an older-reading label. Market quotes expire from this index after four days.

Checks run on page visits and every 15 minutes while the page is open; official-series responses are cached for up to one hour. Provider failures retain the last verified reading. Reviewed local analysis and company earnings remain dated editions.

Economic updates: what it means for Erie & Pennsylvania

Verified release highlights available October 7, 2026. The local implications below are ErieBizToday analysis.

OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

National hiring slows in September

U.S. payrolls added 29,000 jobs; unemployment was 4.2%.

Local implication: Erie employers can review hiring plans against their own orders and staffing needs.

Primary source ↗
OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

Second-quarter growth revised upward

Real U.S. GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate; real GDI grew 2.6%.

Local implication: National expansion provides context, while Erie demand still varies by sector.

Primary source ↗
OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

Consumers spent more after inflation

Real consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, compared with a 0.9% nominal increase.

Local implication: Local retailers and service firms can compare their sales volume with price-driven revenue changes.

Primary source ↗
OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

Borrowing benchmark moved higher

The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00%.

Local implication: Review variable-rate debt and obtain current lender quotes before financing expansion.

Primary source ↗
OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

State and metro job data cover August

Pennsylvania unemployment was 3.7%, seasonally adjusted. Erie MSA reported 127,000 jobs and 3.9% unemployment, not seasonally adjusted.

Local implication: Retain geography and adjustment labels when comparing markets or planning recruitment.

Primary source ↗Pennsylvania data ↗
OFFICIAL RELEASE ·

Electricity remains a business cost to watch

Pennsylvania commercial electricity averaged 13.86 cents per kWh in July.

Local implication: Use the state average as a benchmark and compare it with your actual Erie bill and supplier offer.

Primary source ↗
Explore related ErieBizToday reporting →
BUSINESS IMPACT CALCULATOR

What does this mean for my business?

Test a cost increase against your own monthly numbers. This scenario stays in your browser and is not saved or submitted.

YOUR MONTHLY SCENARIO
$1,200extra cost per month · $14,400 per year
Profit before increase
$10,000
Profit after increase
$8,800
Profit erosion
12.0%
OPTION 1 · MORE SALES$3,000

Additional monthly sales at your 40% contribution margin.

OPTION 2 · PRICING+2.40%

Average price increase at unchanged sales volume.

These are separate alternatives; do not add them together. A price increase can change demand. Zero contribution margin cannot cover extra costs through new sales.

PRICING · Professional services

Review what you charge

Review retainers and quote scope before your next renewal.

Use a short team review before changing commitments.
CAPACITY · Professional services

Plan the work you can deliver

Compare billable capacity with confirmed work before adding staff.

Use a short team review before changing commitments.
CASH · Professional services

Protect your cash runway

Track collections and client concentration alongside your monthly margin.

Use a short team review before changing commitments.
Formula and assumptions

Extra cost = expenses × increase ÷ 100. Annual cost = extra cost × 12. Profit = revenue − expenses. Profit erosion = extra cost ÷ starting profit × 100, only when starting profit is positive. Additional sales = extra cost ÷ contribution margin. Price increase = extra cost ÷ revenue × 100.

Contribution margin is the part of each additional sales dollar left after its variable costs. This illustration assumes unchanged volume, fixed operating costs and contribution margin; it excludes taxes, financing, capital spending and changes in customer demand. It does not automatically apply the dashboard inflation rate to your business.

SBA: planning business costs ↗

Markets & fuel prices

Major indexes, bond yields, commodities and the cost of filling up nationally, in Pennsylvania and in Erie.

Checked every 15 minutes while this page is open. Quotes may be delayed; timestamps show the last reported trade, including the last session when markets are closed. Futures prices are not retail fuel or physical gold prices.

National gasoline & diesel

AAA daily averages · US dollars per gallon · report 2026-10-07

United States

Regular gasoline · per gallon$4.3667
Yesterday$4.3685Week ago$4.4343

United States

Diesel · per gallon$6.3015
Yesterday$6.3151Week ago$6.4139
Source: AAA national fuel prices ↗

Erie & Pennsylvania gasoline and diesel

AAA daily averages · US dollars per gallon · regular unleaded gasoline. These are regional averages, not individual station prices.

AAA report:

Erie

Regular gasoline · per gallon$4.6433
Yesterday$4.6545Week ago$4.7115

Erie

Diesel · per gallon$6.5748
Yesterday$6.5783Week ago$6.5869

Pennsylvania

Regular gasoline · per gallon$4.4568
Yesterday$4.4699Week ago$4.5205

Pennsylvania

Diesel · per gallon$6.5449
Yesterday$6.5517Week ago$6.5775
Source: AAA Pennsylvania fuel prices and metro averages ↗

Oil-company profit year to date

Reported U.S. GAAP earnings for January–June 2026, verified October 7. These are company-wide results, including international activities, rather than Erie earnings or profit per gallon. Business mix and one-time items differ.

This is the latest completed reporting period verified for this edition. Review third-quarter filings when released; the figures above do not include July–October earnings.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE · ERIE & NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

Erie, PA Business Market Snapshot

Healthcare, manufacturing, local demand and redevelopment

Erie County’s economy spans healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, education and visitor services. This report uses official data available by October 7, 2026. Each measure keeps its reference period; analysis is labeled.

Research edition · · ErieBizToday analysis

Pennsylvania business benchmarks

Erie County & metro benchmarks

Current Market

Erie labor-market data

Check the current Erie metropolitan-area employment and unemployment tables. Figures have different periods and may be revised.

Bureau of Labor Statistics · Erie

Pennsylvania workforce statistics

fact

Payroll employment is broadly steady

August 2026 preliminary nonfarm employment was 0.2% above August 2025. Monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted.

BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗

Major players

Representative anchors across sectors, not a revenue ranking or an exhaustive list. Company sources establish their activities; they do not independently establish market share.

Selected companies and their relevance
CompanyMarketWhy watch
Erie Insurance / Erie IndemnityNASDAQ: ERIE · Loading…Parent company: Erie Indemnity CompanyInsurance and professional servicesErie headquarters and a workforce largely concentrated locally support a major office-employment anchor.Erie Indemnity — 2025 Annual Report ↗
UPMC HamotNot publicly tradedHealthcareRegional referral hospital and Level II Trauma Center based in Erie.UPMC Hamot — About the Hospital ↗
AHN Saint VincentNot publicly tradedHealthcareHospital and outpatient network serving Erie, including occupational-health services.AHN Saint Vincent — Erie Services ↗
WabtecNYSE: WAB · Loading…Rail manufacturingErie site manufactures locomotives and performs machining, welding, assembly and testing.Wabtec — Erie Manufacturing Site ↗
Penn State Behrend / Knowledge ParkNot publicly tradedEducation, research and business supportOffers applied research, workforce training, recruiting and business-park resources.Penn State Behrend — Business and Community Partners ↗
Erie Downtown Development CorporationNot publicly tradedDowntown redevelopmentFlagship City Commons combines planned restaurant, retail, office and event space.EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗
Erie County Redevelopment AuthorityNot publicly tradedBusiness developmentProvides business financing programs and assistance for expansion and redevelopment.Erie County Redevelopment Authority — Access to Capital ↗
VisitErieNot publicly tradedTourism and eventsOfficial county destination marketer for leisure travel, conventions and sporting events.VisitErie — Official Destination Marketing Organization ↗

Stock quotes from Yahoo Finance may be delayed. Checked every 15 minutes while this page is open; closed markets show the last reported trade.

Recent Developments

fact

CRIZ moves into project implementation

The Authority’s July 15, 2026 minutes report three projects approved by the Commonwealth to move forward. This confirms approvals, rather than finished construction.

Erie CRIZ Authority — July 15, 2026 Minutes ↗
fact

Flagship City Commons adds a mixed-use plan

EDDC describes a four-story downtown project with restaurants, retail, offices and a rooftop event area. Its page provides a leasing contact and construction updates.

EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗
fact

September storm recovery remains timely

PEMA announced assistance after September 2–3, 2026 storms. Its notice sets November 23, 2026 for SBA physical-damage applications and June 22, 2027 for economic-injury applications.

PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗

Where opportunities are emerging

analysis

Test downtown demand

Analysis: assess customer access and project leasing terms before planning an offer around new mixed-use space.

EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗

Risks to monitor

analysis

Uneven sector performance

Analysis: August 2026 gains were concentrated; trade, transportation and utilities employment fell 2.0% year over year.

BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗

Pricing and business models

The Erie region has many distinct markets, so there is no meaningful single regional price. Official benchmarks below are separated from suggested commercial models.

Benchmarks and models to evaluate
AreaBenchmark or modelHow to use it
StaffingOccupation-specific wage benchmarksBLS — Erie Occupational Employment and Wages ↗Use the May 2025 BLS wage table as a dated comparison point, then obtain current role-specific offers.
Housing contextHistorical county benchmarkU.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗Median gross rent was $904 for 2020–2024; this is a household measure, not a current commercial lease quote.
Downtown commercial spaceDirect leasing inquiryEDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗EDDC lists planned restaurant, retail and office areas at Flagship City Commons and a contact for project terms.
Business expansionProgram-specific termsErie County Redevelopment Authority — Access to Capital ↗ECRDA lists financing for property, renovations and equipment. Confirm eligibility, rates and repayment terms directly.
Electricity13.86 cents per kWh statewide commercial averageEIA — State Electricity Prices ↗Use the July 2026 Pennsylvania EIA figure as context; obtain current Erie utility and supplier quotes.

Customers and Demand

analysis

Institutional and industrial buyers

Analysis: healthcare, insurance, education and manufacturing organizations form practical segments for local business-service research. Employer rankings identify scale, not purchasing commitments.

PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗

Outlook and Watchpoints

Evidence and cross-checks

This is a dated research edition with links to official sources. Labor figures may be preliminary and are labeled by period and geography. County population and metropolitan employment cover different geographic areas. Company descriptions establish local operations, not market share. Opportunities and risks labeled Analysis are editorial judgments to test, not forecasts.

Sources and observation periods

10 key findings

analysis

Statewide costs need local checks

Pennsylvania commercial electricity averaged 13.86 cents per kWh in July 2026. Analysis: compare this statewide benchmark with your actual Erie bill and contract.

EIA — State Electricity Prices ↗

5 opportunities

analysis

Test downtown demand

Analysis: assess customer access and project leasing terms before planning an offer around new mixed-use space.

EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗

3 major risks

analysis

Uneven sector performance

Analysis: August 2026 gains were concentrated; trade, transportation and utilities employment fell 2.0% year over year.

BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗

Practical next steps

  1. Refresh monthly labor figures through BLS and Pennsylvania CWIA, retaining the data period and preliminary status.
  2. Validate current leasing availability, tenant commitments and completion dates with project owners.
  3. Compare role-specific wage benchmarks with current recruitment conditions.
  4. Check official storm-recovery notices for eligibility and deadline updates.
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