Real GDP
2.2% annualized quarterly growth- Reporting period
- Q2 2026
- Released
- Sep 30, 2026
- Verified
- Oct 7, 2026
- Next release
- Oct 29, 2026
Inflation-adjusted U.S. output; third estimate, subject to revision.
Official source ↗National conditions that shape Erie and Pennsylvania business decisions.
A calculated U.S. economic index using seven components. Partial index: 95% of component weights available. This is national context; Erie and Pennsylvania figures appear in the regional report.
Reviewed October 7, 2026. Verified readings shown below.Inflation-adjusted U.S. output; third estimate, subject to revision.
Official source ↗Income-side measure of U.S. output.
Official source ↗Seasonally adjusted national rate; not the Erie rate.
Official source ↗Seasonally adjusted change; September is preliminary.
Official source ↗Inflation-adjusted spending; calculated from FRED levels and rounded to one decimal.
Official source ↗Excludes food and energy; calculated from matching months one year apart.
Official source ↗CPI-U seasonally adjusted index via FRED; individual business costs vary.
Official source ↗National manufacturing production, NAICS basis, seasonally adjusted.
Official source ↗Policy target benchmark; not a business loan quote.
Official source ↗Upper bound of the federal funds target range.
Official source ↗Down 6.7 index points from August. A supplementary survey signal; excluded from the score.
Official source ↗Coincident Economic Index level 114.9 (2016 = 100).
Official source ↗Leading Economic Index level 99.5 (2016 = 100).
Official source ↗Awaiting verified Treasury and S&P quotes. The score uses the available economic components.
Higher yields can raise borrowing pressure; daily stock moves are a short-term signal.
See market quotes ↓This editorial index is calculated by ErieBizToday; it is not a government statistic or recession probability. Official BEA, BLS and Federal Reserve data are read through FRED. The Conference Board readings are a reviewed release snapshot and expire at the next scheduled release. Confidence, CPI, factory output and Fed rates provide context and do not add score components.
| Component | Weight | Input → score | Current score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 20% | Average GDP and GDI: −2% → 0; +4% → 100 | 73.3 |
| Employment | 20% | Average unemployment: 3% → 100; 8% → 0. Payroll: 0 → 40; 300,000 → 90 | 60.4 |
| Real spending | 15% | −0.5% → 20; +0.5% → 80 | 86.0 |
| Core inflation | 10% | 2% → 90; 5% → 0 | 60.0 |
| Current activity · CEI | 15% | −0.5% → 15; +0.5% → 85 | 57.0 |
| Leading indicators · LEI | 15% | −0.5% → 15; +0.5% → 85 | 43.0 |
| Financial conditions | 5% | Treasury (70%): 3% → 80; 6% → 20. S&P (30%): −2% → 25; +2% → 75 | Excluded |
Each input score = max(0, min(100, low score + (input − low input) ÷ (high input − low input) × (high score − low score))). Available inputs within growth and employment are averaged; financial inputs are weighted 70/30 and renormalized when one is missing. Total = sum(score × weight) ÷ available weights, rounded to an integer. The score is withheld below 45% available weight.
Bands: 80–100 strong expansion; 70–79 healthy expansion; 60–69 expanding with pressure; 45–59 mixed; 30–44 under pressure; below 30 severe pressure. Future observations are rejected. Readings past their stated next release or age limit are excluded; retained values remain visible with an older-reading label. Market quotes expire from this index after four days.
Checks run on page visits and every 15 minutes while the page is open; official-series responses are cached for up to one hour. Provider failures retain the last verified reading. Reviewed local analysis and company earnings remain dated editions.
Verified release highlights available October 7, 2026. The local implications below are ErieBizToday analysis.
U.S. payrolls added 29,000 jobs; unemployment was 4.2%.
Local implication: Erie employers can review hiring plans against their own orders and staffing needs.
Primary source ↗Real U.S. GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate; real GDI grew 2.6%.
Local implication: National expansion provides context, while Erie demand still varies by sector.
Primary source ↗Real consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, compared with a 0.9% nominal increase.
Local implication: Local retailers and service firms can compare their sales volume with price-driven revenue changes.
Primary source ↗The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
Local implication: Review variable-rate debt and obtain current lender quotes before financing expansion.
Primary source ↗Pennsylvania unemployment was 3.7%, seasonally adjusted. Erie MSA reported 127,000 jobs and 3.9% unemployment, not seasonally adjusted.
Local implication: Retain geography and adjustment labels when comparing markets or planning recruitment.
Primary source ↗Pennsylvania data ↗Pennsylvania commercial electricity averaged 13.86 cents per kWh in July.
Local implication: Use the state average as a benchmark and compare it with your actual Erie bill and supplier offer.
Primary source ↗Test a cost increase against your own monthly numbers. This scenario stays in your browser and is not saved or submitted.
These are separate alternatives; do not add them together. A price increase can change demand. Zero contribution margin cannot cover extra costs through new sales.
Review retainers and quote scope before your next renewal.
Use a short team review before changing commitments.Compare billable capacity with confirmed work before adding staff.
Use a short team review before changing commitments.Track collections and client concentration alongside your monthly margin.
Use a short team review before changing commitments.Extra cost = expenses × increase ÷ 100. Annual cost = extra cost × 12. Profit = revenue − expenses. Profit erosion = extra cost ÷ starting profit × 100, only when starting profit is positive. Additional sales = extra cost ÷ contribution margin. Price increase = extra cost ÷ revenue × 100.
Contribution margin is the part of each additional sales dollar left after its variable costs. This illustration assumes unchanged volume, fixed operating costs and contribution margin; it excludes taxes, financing, capital spending and changes in customer demand. It does not automatically apply the dashboard inflation rate to your business.
SBA: planning business costs ↗Major indexes, bond yields, commodities and the cost of filling up nationally, in Pennsylvania and in Erie.
Checked every 15 minutes while this page is open. Quotes may be delayed; timestamps show the last reported trade, including the last session when markets are closed. Futures prices are not retail fuel or physical gold prices.
AAA daily averages · US dollars per gallon · report 2026-10-07
AAA daily averages · US dollars per gallon · regular unleaded gasoline. These are regional averages, not individual station prices.
AAA report:
Reported U.S. GAAP earnings for January–June 2026, verified October 7. These are company-wide results, including international activities, rather than Erie earnings or profit per gallon. Business mix and one-time items differ.
This is the latest completed reporting period verified for this edition. Review third-quarter filings when released; the figures above do not include July–October earnings.
Erie County’s economy spans healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, education and visitor services. This report uses official data available by October 7, 2026. Each measure keeps its reference period; analysis is labeled.
Research edition · · ErieBizToday analysisCheck the current Erie metropolitan-area employment and unemployment tables. Figures have different periods and may be revised.
Bureau of Labor Statistics · ErieAugust 2026 preliminary nonfarm employment was 0.2% above August 2025. Monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗CWIA’s Q1 2026 ranking places Erie Indemnity first, UPMC Hamot second, Saint Vincent fourth and Wabtec fifth among county employers.
PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗The July 2025 county population estimate was 1.9% below the April 2020 estimates base.
U.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗Representative anchors across sectors, not a revenue ranking or an exhaustive list. Company sources establish their activities; they do not independently establish market share.
| Company | Market | Why watch |
|---|---|---|
| Erie Insurance / Erie IndemnityNASDAQ: ERIE · Loading…Parent company: Erie Indemnity Company | Insurance and professional services | Erie headquarters and a workforce largely concentrated locally support a major office-employment anchor.Erie Indemnity — 2025 Annual Report ↗ |
| UPMC HamotNot publicly traded | Healthcare | Regional referral hospital and Level II Trauma Center based in Erie.UPMC Hamot — About the Hospital ↗ |
| AHN Saint VincentNot publicly traded | Healthcare | Hospital and outpatient network serving Erie, including occupational-health services.AHN Saint Vincent — Erie Services ↗ |
| WabtecNYSE: WAB · Loading… | Rail manufacturing | Erie site manufactures locomotives and performs machining, welding, assembly and testing.Wabtec — Erie Manufacturing Site ↗ |
| Penn State Behrend / Knowledge ParkNot publicly traded | Education, research and business support | Offers applied research, workforce training, recruiting and business-park resources.Penn State Behrend — Business and Community Partners ↗ |
| Erie Downtown Development CorporationNot publicly traded | Downtown redevelopment | Flagship City Commons combines planned restaurant, retail, office and event space.EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗ |
| Erie County Redevelopment AuthorityNot publicly traded | Business development | Provides business financing programs and assistance for expansion and redevelopment.Erie County Redevelopment Authority — Access to Capital ↗ |
| VisitErieNot publicly traded | Tourism and events | Official county destination marketer for leisure travel, conventions and sporting events.VisitErie — Official Destination Marketing Organization ↗ |
Stock quotes from Yahoo Finance may be delayed. Checked every 15 minutes while this page is open; closed markets show the last reported trade.
Education and health services employed 31,100 in August 2026, up 2.6% year over year; manufacturing’s 19,000 jobs were unchanged.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Production occupations represented 9.8% of Erie employment in May 2025, compared with 5.5% nationally.
BLS — Erie Occupational Employment and Wages ↗Behrend offers sponsored research, workforce programs, internships and recruitment connections alongside Knowledge Park.
Penn State Behrend — Business and Community Partners ↗The Authority’s July 15, 2026 minutes report three projects approved by the Commonwealth to move forward. This confirms approvals, rather than finished construction.
Erie CRIZ Authority — July 15, 2026 Minutes ↗EDDC describes a four-story downtown project with restaurants, retail, offices and a rooftop event area. Its page provides a leasing contact and construction updates.
EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗Pennsylvania’s October 2025 announcement described Bayfront Parkway improvements, proposed Market House support and a McKean Business Park planning grant. Current delivery milestones need project-level confirmation.
Pennsylvania — Erie Infrastructure and Development Announcement ↗PEMA announced assistance after September 2–3, 2026 storms. Its notice sets November 23, 2026 for SBA physical-damage applications and June 22, 2027 for economic-injury applications.
PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗Analysis: research service needs at hospital, insurance and education anchors, including facilities, workforce and administrative support.
PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗Analysis: manufacturers can explore Behrend’s research, training and recruitment programs around defined process or skills needs.
Penn State Behrend — Business and Community Partners ↗Wabtec — Erie Manufacturing Site ↗Analysis: assess customer access and project leasing terms before planning an offer around new mixed-use space.
EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗Analysis: population decline can constrain broad local customer growth; businesses should test their target segment’s demand.
U.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗Analysis: August 2026 gains were concentrated; trade, transportation and utilities employment fell 2.0% year over year.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Analysis: September storm damage can affect premises and operations while recovery proceeds; exposure differs by business.
PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗The Erie region has many distinct markets, so there is no meaningful single regional price. Official benchmarks below are separated from suggested commercial models.
| Area | Benchmark or model | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Staffing | Occupation-specific wage benchmarksBLS — Erie Occupational Employment and Wages ↗ | Use the May 2025 BLS wage table as a dated comparison point, then obtain current role-specific offers. |
| Housing context | Historical county benchmarkU.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗ | Median gross rent was $904 for 2020–2024; this is a household measure, not a current commercial lease quote. |
| Downtown commercial space | Direct leasing inquiryEDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗ | EDDC lists planned restaurant, retail and office areas at Flagship City Commons and a contact for project terms. |
| Business expansion | Program-specific termsErie County Redevelopment Authority — Access to Capital ↗ | ECRDA lists financing for property, renovations and equipment. Confirm eligibility, rates and repayment terms directly. |
| Electricity | 13.86 cents per kWh statewide commercial averageEIA — State Electricity Prices ↗ | Use the July 2026 Pennsylvania EIA figure as context; obtain current Erie utility and supplier quotes. |
County median household income was $63,354 in 2024 dollars for 2020–2024. Analysis: use this dated baseline when examining local affordability.
U.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗Analysis: healthcare, insurance, education and manufacturing organizations form practical segments for local business-service research. Employer rankings identify scale, not purchasing commitments.
PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗VisitErie promotes leisure trips, conventions and sporting events year round. Analysis: businesses serving visitors can examine those separate demand channels and event calendars.
VisitErie — Official Destination Marketing Organization ↗Analysis: a nearly flat total job base calls for watching sector demand closely. Project approvals alone do not establish new sales or completed space.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Erie CRIZ Authority — July 15, 2026 Minutes ↗Analysis: track signed tenants, opening dates and actual project completion to assess downtown demand as planned commercial space advances.
EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗Pennsylvania — Erie Infrastructure and Development Announcement ↗Analysis: storm-affected operators should check official recovery updates and review premises, utilities and business-continuity needs.
PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗This is a dated research edition with links to official sources. Labor figures may be preliminary and are labeled by period and geography. County population and metropolitan employment cover different geographic areas. Company descriptions establish local operations, not market share. Opportunities and risks labeled Analysis are editorial judgments to test, not forecasts.
August 2026 preliminary payroll jobs increased 0.2% from a year earlier.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Education and health services grew faster than total payroll employment in August 2026.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗The latest CWIA county ranking identifies insurance, hospitals and rail manufacturing among the largest employers.
PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗County population declined between the 2020 estimates base and July 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗May 2025 mean hourly pay ranged widely across occupations; the overall mean was below the U.S. mean.
BLS — Erie Occupational Employment and Wages ↗Flagship City Commons lists mixed commercial uses and an official leasing contact.
EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗July 2026 CRIZ minutes report Commonwealth approval for three projects.
Erie CRIZ Authority — July 15, 2026 Minutes ↗September 2026 storms triggered official disaster-assistance measures covering Erie County.
PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗Pennsylvania commercial electricity averaged 13.86 cents per kWh in July 2026. Analysis: compare this statewide benchmark with your actual Erie bill and contract.
EIA — State Electricity Prices ↗Pennsylvania’s August unemployment rate was 3.7%, seasonally adjusted; Erie’s 3.9% was not seasonally adjusted. The two series need matching adjustment before a direct comparison.
BLS — Pennsylvania Economy at a Glance ↗BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Analysis: research service needs at hospital, insurance and education anchors, including facilities, workforce and administrative support.
PA CWIA — Erie County Top 50 Employers and Industries ↗Analysis: manufacturers can explore Behrend’s research, training and recruitment programs around defined process or skills needs.
Penn State Behrend — Business and Community Partners ↗Wabtec — Erie Manufacturing Site ↗Analysis: assess customer access and project leasing terms before planning an offer around new mixed-use space.
EDDC — Flagship City Commons ↗Analysis: leisure, convention and sports-event calendars provide distinct audiences for hospitality and local retailers to evaluate.
VisitErie — Official Destination Marketing Organization ↗Analysis: businesses with specific property or equipment projects can review ECRDA programs and CRIZ geography and criteria.
Erie County Redevelopment Authority — Access to Capital ↗Erie CRIZ Authority — Program and Funding Guidelines ↗Analysis: population decline can constrain broad local customer growth; businesses should test their target segment’s demand.
U.S. Census Bureau — Erie County QuickFacts ↗Analysis: August 2026 gains were concentrated; trade, transportation and utilities employment fell 2.0% year over year.
BLS — Erie Economy at a Glance ↗Analysis: September storm damage can affect premises and operations while recovery proceeds; exposure differs by business.
PEMA — September 2026 Erie Storm Recovery ↗